There’s just a few days to go until England’s local elections.
People in 14 counties, eight unitaries and one metropolitian borough are heading to the polls to determine who runs their local council.
With Reform on the rise, and both Conservative and Labour-run authorities at risk, it could be one of the most fascinating set of elections for years.
Who will triumph next week?
Cavendish experts Sean Fielding (North) and Nick Sutcliffe (South) have analysed the dynamics at play in six of the councils responsible for local planning.
These are the battleground contests you need to keep an eye on next Thursday.
Buckinghamshire
On paper Buckinghamshire Council looks safe Conservative territory.
But they’re facing into one of their toughest ever elections.
It’s hard to predict the dynamics of a new ward map that will see councillor numbers cut dramatically from 147 to 97.
To add to the Conservatives’ woes, the previous elections were held in May 2021 at the peak of the Boris bounce following the Covid vaccine roll-out.
The Conservatives will be battered from all sides, including anti-development independents who made inroads in 2021, along with Reform and the Lib Dems.
The July 2024 general election results when Labour gained three parliamentary seats demonstrate this is no longer solid blue territory any more.
Cornwall
Cornwall Council is the unitary council in the south most likely to change hands.
The Conservatives are only just clinging on as a minority administration following several defections and resignations throughout this term.
Even the leader is leaving. Cllr Linda Taylor is stepping down as a councillor at the end of this term following a bid to oust her.
Labour won some seats here at the general election, but with poor representation on the council, Liberal Democrats are the key challengers in respect of taking control.
Doncaster
Doncaster is not only choosing 55 councillors to represent the borough, but its directly-elected mayor too.
Labour’s Ros Jones is currently in charge, with a strong Labour majority of councillors to support her. The veteran politician, 75, is looking to win a third term, but 11 people are challenging her for the position.
It will be a tough fight, with Reform likely to poll well here. There’s also precedence for electing non-established party candidates, having elected an English Democrat as Mayor in 2009. There is potential for a significant shift in the dynamics of the city’s politics come May 1.
Durham
A century of Labour control came crashing down at the last elections in 2021. While they remained the largest party, a rainbow coalition of Liberal Democrats, Conservatives, Independents, Greens and local parties united together to block them from power.
Labour only need a small number of gains to reclaim their majority this time. But with their polling position even weaker than it was four years ago, their chances of re-taking power here look slim.
Reform’s rise is another spanner in the works. They hope to win big here – perhaps, even taking control of their first council. Durham is definitely one to watch next week.
Northumberland
Northumberland’s current political composition is a mixed bag. Whilst the Conservatives only need two more seats to win a majority, on current polling they are more likely to go backwards than forwards.
An even more fractured council should be expected as a result of May’s elections.
Right now, it’s hard to say who will come out on top but the authority is almost certain to be led by a minority or coalition administration.
Wiltshire
Wiltshire is another strong Conservative unitary council where the pressure will be on to save their majority, with the Liberal Democrats being the main challenger.
They will be hoping to replicate the strong parliamentary performances in Chippenham, Melksham and Devizes and South Cotswolds at the July 2024 general election.
However, the gap to gain overall control will be significant. If the Liberal Democrats do pull off victory here, it would be seen as a landmark achievement.
For more insight into how the 2025 local elections could affect your project, get in touch here.
