Last night’s debate was the first time we have seen Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer go head-to-head in the campaign. For Starmer, the challenge was not to flop and throw away his 20-point lead in the polls – it was his to lose.

For Sunak, he needed the win – the opportunity to land a knock-out punch against Starmer and to burst that stubborn Labour poll lead.   

In the end, neither of the two leaders really broke through and neither of them threw it away. YouGov’s post-debate poll declared Rishi Sunak the victor – just – by 51% to Starmer’s 49%, though two overnight polls by Savanta and JLP put Starmer ahead. And, when you look beyond the headline “who won”, YouGov’s polls show a similarly mixed picture: 

• While Sunak is seen to have “won” the debate, Starmer “performed best” by 60% to 55% and was not seen as the worst performer (Keir 40% vs 44% Rishi). 

• In terms of policy areas, Sunak was ahead on tax and immigration, but Starmer leads on the NHS, climate change, cost of living and education. 

• Starmer was seen as more trustworthy, likeable and in touch. Rishi was notably ahead on being Prime Ministerial (43% vs 40%). 

None of this is probably that surprising to you though. So, what did we learn from this first debate, and what can we expect to see in the next?  

Both leaders were clearly nervous as they took to the podium and took some time to warm up. There was no natural charisma from the start, and neither were able to come across as the “born leader” – perhaps some self-reflection has played a role in their decision not to debate perhaps more commanding orators, such as Nigel Farage? 

Sunak had learnt his lines and was sticking to them: “Labour will cost you £2,000 more” anyone? And whilst it did at times appear somewhat forced, and as if he was trying to get the line into every single answer, it worked. Post-debate analysis shows that this is the line that cut through, the one thing that the audience went away remembering. Starmer struggled to address the figure, attempting to simply dismiss it. Expect to hear, read and see plenty more about how “Labour will cost you £2,000 more” over the coming weeks – even if Treasury officials have already refuted that these figures are accurate.

On the red team, Starmer seemed less rehearsed and was, perhaps, more natural. He addressed answers back to the questioners and showed empathy and understanding. We know that polling shows that Starmer enjoys a hefty lead on “most like me” and “understands my issues”, and Labour will be keen for him to lean into this as the campaign continues. However, he struggled to respond to punchy soundbite accusations from Sunak which would have demanded more detailed answers than you can give in 45 seconds (the format very much played against Starmer here). As Ronald Reagan once said, “If you’re explaining, you’re losing”. 

On those issues you would traditionally associate with the Conservatives, Sunak performed better – the economy, immigration and tax. This was where he was most comfortable, was able to show some excitement, talk about a vision for the future and land punches on Starmer. On the flipside, on social issues, Starmer was much more in control – on schools, hospitals and young people, he out-performed Sunak. This very much aligns with internal polling which the parties will be basing their messaging on, and we can expect both sides to lean into these areas further in the campaign. 

Whilst neither leader landed the knock-out blow on the other, nor made any new flashy announcements, this debate clearly showed where the focus for the Conservatives and Labour will be over the next 29 days. Tune in next Wednesday to see if either side has learned any lessons or changes their tactics. 

For more information on what’s been said – including detail on all the policy announcements so far, visit our General Election Hub.