Introduction
The formation of the Welsh Government following the 2026 election is governed by clear statutory deadlines, but its political significance extends well beyond process. In a larger, and likely more fragmented Senedd, early negotiations over leadership, committees and parliamentary control will be critical in determining how the Senedd is run, and how effectively the next government can operate. This briefing sets out the formal steps and political dynamics shaping the transition to the Seventh Senedd.
Transition Timetable
The first Plenary meeting of the Seventh Senedd must be held within seven working days of polling day. Its primary purpose is to elect:
• the Presiding Officer (Llywydd)
• the Deputy Presiding Officer
• with the option of a second Deputy Presiding Officer
The election of the Presiding Officer takes precedence over all other business. The current Presiding Officer, Elin Jones remains in post until a new Presiding Officer is elected by the Senedd. She will have a key role in determining when the first session of Plenary of 7th Senedd is called and held.
If, as polls suggest, no party gains a majority of seats in the Senedd in the election, parties will be in discussions to seek cross party discuss which can gain the support to form a government. If the path to forming a government is clear, then the first Senedd session might include the election of a Presiding Officer and nomination for First Minister. If party negotiations are prolonged, then the first Plenary session will be convened just to elect a PO and DPO(s). It is worth noting that there are clear rules regarding ensuring that the role of Presiding Officer and Deputy Presiding officer(s) must not belong to the same political grouping and must also include a member of a political grouping who forms the Government.
Within 28 days of the election, the Senedd must nominate a First Minister. Where more than one candidate is proposed, Members vote, through a rollcall, with the successful nominee requiring a simple majority. The Presiding Officer and Deputy Presiding Officer do not vote.
Once nominated, the Presiding Officer formally recommends the candidate to the King for appointment. Failure to nominate a First Minister within the 28-day period results in automatic dissolution of the Senedd and a further election.
Political Context and Pace of Transition
While statutory deadlines are fixed, the speed and complexity of government formation depend on the election outcome:
• Clear majority: enables rapid nomination of a First Minister and early appointment of ministers.
• A hung Senedd: requires cross party discussions to enable a First Minister to be election, full coalition negotiations or more informal cooperation agreements, often extending discussions close to the statutory deadline.
Balance of Power in the Seventh Senedd
Different governing arrangements shape both executive authority and parliamentary control:
• Majority governments exercise clear control over government formation and Senedd scheduling.
• Coalition governments distribute influence between partners, embedding negotiation into decision-making.
• Minority governments rely on cross-party support to pass legislation and maintain confidence.
The expansion to a 96-member Senedd increases the likelihood of multi-party outcomes, making negotiation and agreement-building a central feature of the Seventh Senedd politics.
Balance of Power Since Devolution
Since devolution in 1999, Wales has been governed continuously by a Welsh Labour–led government, but without a sustained overall majority in the Senedd. As a result, every Welsh Government has depended on formal or informal arrangements with other parties to secure approval for annual budgets and to progress key legislation. These arrangements have varied over time – from coalition government to confidence and supply arrangements and looser issue-by-issue cooperation – but collectively, they have embedded cross-party negotiation into the operation of Welsh governance.
Looking Ahead This election is likely to return a fragmented Senedd, reflecting both current polling and the shift to a more proportional electoral system. In this context, the negotiation of agreements – whether formal or informal – is likely to be a necessary feature of government formation and legislative progress. Let’s take a look at some recent polling to understand the possible negotiations engendered by different compositions on results day.
