A new poll from Ipsos has headline figures of:
Plaid Cymru: 30% (39 Seats)
Reform UK: 25% (29 Seats)
Labour: 15% (14 Seats)
Conservatives: 12% (8 Seats)
Green: 10% (4 Seats)
Liberal Democrats: 6% (2 seats)
Other: 2%
The constituency breakdown of our projection shows Plaid Cymru winning 4 seats in three of their heartland constituencies, as well as picking up 3 seats in Ceredigion Penfro and Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni.
Reform UK would win two seats in every constituency barring Bangor Conwy Môn, Caerdydd Ffynon Taf, and Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni.
Labour would pick up two seats in Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni, Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr, and Afan Ogwr Rhondda, as well as one seat across the other south-east and north-east Wales constituencies.
The Conservatives would gain two seats in Clwyd, as well as individual seats in six constituencies.
The Greens would win four individual seats in South Wales, while the Lib Dems would win a seat in Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd and Caerdydd Ffynon Taf.
Just a reminder, these are projections, not a prediction – and you can make your own via our Cavendish Cymru Seat Projector here.
Written by
James Brinning
