Plaid Cymru: 33% (40 seats)
Reform UK: 27% (30 Seats)
Labour 13% (12 Seats)
Green: 12% (9 seats)
Conservative 7% (4 Seats)
Liberal Democrat: 5% (1 Seat)
Other: 4% (0 seats)
The constituency breakdown of our projection shows Plaid Cymru winning at least 2 seats in all of the 16 constituencies bar Sir Fynwy Torfaen. They’re set to pick up 4 in Gwynedd Maldwyn, Sir Gaerfyrddin and Bangor Conwy Môn.
Reform UK are set for a strong showing of 30 seats – picking up at least a seat in each of the 16 constituencies and winning 2 in most.
Labour are projected to be without a seat in 5 of the 16 constituencies – while the Tories only win 4 seats.
Elsewhere, the Greens are projected to win 9 seats – all in different constituencies – but it’s important to note that local strengths (ie in Cardiff) may not be properly shown in this UNS projection.
Jane Dodds will remain the only Lib Dem MS.
Just a reminder these are projections, not a prediction – and you can make your own via our Cavendish Cymru Seat Projector here.
Written by
James Brinning
