A new poll from ITV Wales/YouGov has headline figures of:
Plaid Cymru: 29% (36 Seats)
Reform UK: 29% (36 Seats)
Labour 13% (13 Seats)
Conservative: 8% (6 Seats)
Green: 10% (2 Seats)
Liberal Democrats: 6% (1 Seat)
Other 4%
The constituency breakdown of our projection shows that both Reform UK and Plaid Cymru would win 36 seats, with at least two seats in each of the 16 constituencies.
Plaid Cymru would win 4 seats in Gwynedd Maldwyn, and 3 across their heartlands of Ceredigion Penfro, Sir Gaerfyrddin and Bangor Conwy Môn. Reform UK would win 3 seats in each of Sir Gaerfyrddin, Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr, Casnewydd Islwyn and Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd.
Labour would fail to win any seats in mid or west Wales, winning thirteen individual seats in constituencies across south and north-east Wales, and winning two seats in Afan Ogwr Rhondda and Blaenau Gwent Caerffili Rhymni.
The Conservatives would pick up 6 seats across Wales, but would not win two in any constituency.
The Greens would pick up 4 seats across different constituencies across South Wales. It is important to note, however, that local strengths may not be fully reflected in this UNS projection.
Jane Dodds would remain the only Lib Dem MS.
Just a reminder, these are projections, not a prediction – and you can make your own via our Cavendish Cymru Seat Projector here.
Written by
James Brinning
