Less than two years ago, the SNP was in freefall, still reeling from the police investigations into the party’s finances, and it suffered a big defeat at the 2024 General Election, losing 80% of its seats. At that point, most assumptions were that, in the absence of any major scandals, Labour’s Anas Sarwar would be the next First Minister in the first Labour Government north of the border in nearly 20 years.
Since then, Labour has fallen dramatically in opinion polls, with the SNP now almost guaranteed victory. They could even achieve only the second ever majority in the Scottish Parliament, something that requires an overwhelming victory.
This has been helped by the rise of Reform UK (who could form the official opposition), who have further split the ‘unionist’ vote – their impact has been primarily on Labour and the Conservatives rather than on the pro-independence SNP. This has been boosted by the Scottish Greens choosing only to stand in 6 constituencies.
When Scottish voters go to the polls on 7 May, they will have two ballot papers, one to elect one of 73 constituency MSPs, elected on a first-past-the-post basis much like the Westminster system. Where it differs is the second regional list vote, where voters vote for a party and where 56 seats are allocated across 8 regions. In theory, this should mean that the overall makeup of the chamber is proportionate to the national vote share received by each party (hence the difficulty in getting a majority) – but in reality, the split unionist vote means that the SNP’s constituency wins is disproportionate to its vote share.
This means that a party with widespread support, but with fewer heartlands where they can win constituencies outright, can win regional seats to boost their numbers.
Cavendish will keep you updated on the campaign and analyse what the result will mean for your business and your sector.
Check out the chart below to see our Scotland Polling Tracker, and you can contact us here for more information.
