The current Combined Authority Mayor, Labour’s Dr Nik Johnson, announced earlier this year that he will not seek re-election in May, meaning a new Mayor will be chosen on 1 May 2025.
The incoming Mayor will oversee a £328 million budget over the next four years for major infrastructure and development projects.
Key issues in this mayoral election include transport infrastructure, housing affordability, environmental sustainability, and economic development.
With such a politically diverse electorate across both urban and rural areas, predicting the outcome is no easy task.
In this piece, we take a look at the role of the Mayor, the candidates vying for this position (and their priorities), and the factors that may influence the result of next month’s election.
What powers will the new Mayor have?
The new Mayor will hold a broad portfolio of responsibilities, spanning housing, transport strategy and investment, skills and employment, and regional economic development.
In addition, the English Devolution White Paper promises to significantly expand the powers and funding available to regional Mayors – placing them at the forefront of shaping their area’s long-term future.
Under these proposals, the Mayor is expected to gain greater authority over planning and housing delivery, an enhanced role in health and social care, increased control over local taxation, and a stronger influence on climate action and energy planning.
In terms of housing and planning specifically, the White Paper outlines several headline powers:
- Spatial Development Strategy (SDS): Mayors will be required to produce an SDS to coordinate housing, infrastructure, and transport across their area.
- ‘Call-in’ Powers: Mayors will be able to intervene in planning applications of strategic importance.
- Mayoral Development Corporations (MDCs): Mayors will have the authority to establish MDCs to lead major development and regeneration schemes.
- Community Infrastructure Levy (MCIL): Mayors will have the power to introduce a levy to fund vital infrastructure improvements tied to new development.
Who are the candidates?
Conservative – Paul Bristow
A former MP for Peterborough, Bristow is campaigning on a platform of infrastructure investment. He supports the dualling of major A-roads including the A10, A47, and A141, as well as better rail links between Peterborough, Cambridge, and Ely. He also backs the delivery of the Fens Reservoir to secure long-term water supplies and is harking back to the last days of Rishi Sunak’s Government by positioning himself against so-called “anti-car” policies and road charging schemes.
Labour – Anna Smith
From the opposite end of the county, Anna Smith is the former Leader of Cambridge City Council and currently serves as Deputy Mayor for Transport on the Combined Authority. Her campaign centres on creating secure, well-paid jobs across the region. She proposes investment in transport, housing, and skills training, while promising to work closely with central government to deliver on regional priorities.
Liberal Democrat – Lorna Dupré
A long-serving county and East Cambs District councillor, Dupré is campaigning for a “greener, fairer, and better-connected” Cambridgeshire and Peterborough. She emphasises the need for genuinely affordable housing in “appropriate locations”, improved public transport, and stronger collaboration with health and emergency services to support communities.
Reform UK – Ryan Coogan
Coogan has focused on the region’s crumbling infrastructure, particularly neglected roads and polluted rivers. He has criticised the local leadership for prioritising new development over the maintenance of existing assets. He has called for a new body “Transport for Greater Cambridgeshire” set up to oversee and improve transport.
Green Party – Bob Ensch
Ensch, a former director at Morgan Sindall Construction, brings an emphasis on environmental responsibility and social equity. He supports investment in green infrastructure and a more inclusive economy. His background includes leading initiatives to upskill young people in the construction sector.
How does voting work?
This year marks a significant change in how the Mayor is elected. The Supplementary Vote (SV) system used in 2021 has been replaced with First Past the Post (FPTP).
Under SV, voters could indicate both a first and second preference, which often benefitted centrist candidates who were widely acceptable as a fallback option.
Now, under FPTP, voters can choose only one candidate, and the candidate with the most votes wins – regardless of whether they achieve a majority.
This shift makes voter mobilisation even more crucial, and candidates must ensure theirs is the name selected on ballot papers. It also raises the likelihood of vote splitting, traditionally a problem among left-leaning parties (Labour, Lib Dems, Greens), which could inadvertently benefit the Conservative candidate.
Conversely, Reform UK’s presence introduces the possibility of splitting the right-leaning vote, which could boost the chances of Labour or the Lib Dems in a close race.
So who might win?
In 2021, Labour’s Dr Nik Johnson narrowly defeated the incumbent Conservative Mayor, James Palmer, following the redistribution of second-preference votes from the Liberal Democrat candidate. Johnson ultimately won with 51% to 49%.
However, if that election had been held under the current FPTP system, James Palmer would likely have won based on the first-round results alone.
Since then, the Liberal Democrats have made notable gains in the region, including wins at parliamentary level.
Meanwhile, Reform UK remains a wildcard – unlikely to win, but capable of disrupting the vote balance, particularly for the Conservatives.
Our prediction?
A narrow Conservative victory, though with multiple parties in play and the new voting system in effect, surprises can’t be ruled out.
What could this mean for Cambridgeshire & Peterborough?
A Conservative victory would mark a significant shift for the region, particularly given Bristow’s pro-motoring stance which runs contrary to conventional political wisdom in Cambridgeshire.
Bristow’s striking campaign includes a commitment to abolishing Greater Cambridge Partnership (CGP) – which he has described as an “absurd body”. In doing so, Bristow wants to “bin” some of the GCP’s key transport projects, including the CSET and C2C busways which underpin the delivery of major new developments in the region.
More broadly, the prospect of a Conservative Mayor raises interesting questions about the region’s place within the Oxford to Cambridge Growth Corridor and the extent to which central Government will be willing to place its confidence (and funding) into a region with such a diverse and potentially combative political make-up.
Under the last Conservative Mayor, James Palmer, disagreements between local leaders were common and spats frequently spilled out in the press. If Bristow is elected in May, we should expect similar fireworks as the struggle for power plays out in a very public way.
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