The new cohort of MSPs have now headed to Holyrood to collect their security passes, pick up their IT equipment and meet their staff.
Though this Holyrood election was widely referred to as the “meh-election”, the final composition of the Scottish Parliament as a whole and some specific constituency results reflect a real change in the current of Scottish politics and policy.
As widely expected, the SNP remains the largest party, taking 58 seats. In a system designed to prevent majority government and after nearly two decades in office, this win is impressive. John Swinney will, in all likelihood, remain as First Minister and set the direction of travel on policy and legislation going forwards. He will look to implement a cap on the price of essential groceries sold by large retailers, achieve net zero by 2045 and hold a second independence referendum in 2028, all of which will dominate the upcoming legislative agenda.
Drill into the detail however, and the political dynamics are more nuanced and so the impact on future policy more complex than the headline figures suggest. The SNP lost some very symbolic constituency seats, like that of former Constitution Minister Angus Robertson in Edinburgh Central and the seat previously held by Nicola Sturgeon, Glasgow Southside. In many constituencies where they did win, they benefitted from an insurgent Reform UK splitting the unionist and right-leaning vote, enabling the SNP to charge through the middle. Seven seats short of a majority, John Swinney now needs to form coalition, Confidence & Supply or case-by-case agreements with the smaller parties to secure their support. It is likely he will do this on an issue-by-issue basis, learning the lessons from the acrimonious end to the Bute House Agreement the SNP shared with the Greens.
Holyrood is also in the novel position of having two parties tie in second place. It seems that Scottish Labour and Reform, both on 17 seats, will need to navigate the privileges of Opposition (be it the right to ask the first question at FMQs, seating arrangements in the Chamber and preferential access to Committee seats) on a shared basis. Indeed, Malcom Offord is already claiming these privileges should fall to Reform for having the larger vote share of the two parties. With Anas Sarwar severely weakened and isolated from the party on a UK-wide level, parliamentary mechanics at Holyrood are likely to become more combative and contested.
The Scottish Greens had a strong set of results, winning their first ever constituencies and coming just two seats behind Labour and Reform. With by far the most detailed policy manifesto to draw on, and the only other party aligned with the SNP on the constitutional question, the Greens will be a key force going forwards. The Liberal Democrats also increased their vote and enjoyed some major constituency wins (like Caithness and Edinburgh Northern). They will look to lean into their reputation as the pragmatists of Parliament to secure their policy priorities space in the legislative pipeline. The Scottish Conservatives had a dramatic slump, losing 19 seats. They appear to have been well and truly supplanted by Reform in Scotland as the advocates of small-state government, heavily restricted immigration and the Union.
What does all this mean for businesses looking to engage with parliamentarians? We expect the First Minister to be confirmed on 19th May, with Ministerial appointments to be made over the 20th and 21st. The smaller parties will be nominating their policy spokespeople and Committee compositions will begin to be formed. Across energy, housing, the economy, local government and external affairs, there will be a new suite of stakeholders with which to build relationships this side of summer recess. In addition to this initial outreach, businesses should consider where Ministerial visits, exhibitions or events for MSPs, and civil service dialogue could reinforce their key policy asks in the longer term and prepare engagement strategies for a regular drumbeat of activity when Parliament returns in the Autumn. Careful deliberation over which ‘level’ in the political system (Cabinet Secretary, local MSP, opposition spokesperson, Special Adviser or civil servant) best fits their objectives will be critical, as will a thorough understanding of how the current instability at Westminster impacts devolution.
Cavendish has a dedicated Government Relations team in Scotland ready to help your business navigate this new political landscape. We would be happy to arrange an introductory session with Peter White to discuss your policy objectives and political engagement strategy.