It is quickly coming back to that time in the Assembly term when thoughts turn to firing up election machines, canvassing and winning hearts and minds.
The Executive has faced significant challenges in recent months since it returned in February 2024 – health waiting lists, Lough Neagh and funding for NI Water all spring to mind.
Recent media reports of the c.£800m deficit in Northern Ireland’s budget projected by the Department of Finance certainly won’t make things easier and have come at an interesting time in the early stages of the 2027 Assembly and local election campaign.
The independent think tank, Pivotal, has put the huge gap in public expenditure down primarily to increases in public sector pay and funding for health. The Executive will have to navigate the tough financial waters ahead with caution.
Some of the Executive parties are feeling the pressure. The latest Lucid Talk poll published last week put Alliance on 11%, compared to the 18.5% it polled in the 2019 European elections.
Alliance’s two Ministries have sizeable in-trays which include high profile topics such as police officer numbers and a Nutrient Action Plan to tackle water quality issues. Their dip in the polls has bolstered its opponents, who will be looking closely at potential opportunities in North Antrim, Upper Bann, East Antrim, South Down, North Down and Strangford.
Meanwhile, the DUP remained stable at 18%, but it’s not yet safe enough to claim that they have won back the ground lost after a difficult Westminster election showing last year.
The party that has attracted most attention in recent polling is the TUV, with Jim Allister’s party looking to carve out a wedge of unionist MLAs in constituencies including Newry and Armagh, West Tyrone, Belfast North, East Londonderry, North Antrim and Strangford.
The Executive parties and the opposition parties are calculating how decisions made today will look during an election campaign in 18 months.
Caoimhe Archibald’s key legislative measure – the Good Jobs Bill – will be a hot political issue in January when the Assembly returns after its Christmas break. Business leaders, the DUP, UUP and TUV have expressed concerns about its impact on the cost-of-doing-business.
Sinn Féin, however, will believe they are in a good position with a feel-good bounce after the independent candidate they backed won the Irish Presidential election. They’ll also be content that while the party’s base may be frustrated by the slow pace of change and delivery at Stormont, blame for this is being attributed elsewhere.
For its part, the SDLP in Opposition has been no push over in the Assembly chamber, but in a mandatory coalition, it is difficult to make an impact. Elections, however, are often won in the margins and Sinn Féin will be aware that small changes could decide whether it returns with 31 seats, holds at 27 or falls back to 25.
Whatever the outcome of the next election, Northern Ireland’s devolved administration faces huge challenges – the role of the Executive locally might well become more important than ever before.
For more insight into what the upcoming 2027 Assembly and local elections in Northern Ireland mean for you and your business, get in touch with Cavendish to find out more.
