Who Might Be Mayor This May: The Favourites To Win 

Devolution is entering a new era. 

Two entirely new mayoralties are being created. While two incumbent mayors are stepping down. 

It means there will be four new mayors to get to know next week. 

Reform UK and Green Party have a chance of securing their first mayoral victories, if recent polling proves correct. 

Of course, with so many dynamics at play, and a few more days of campaigning to go, anything is possible. 

Cavendish experts Keane Duncan, Ben Farnes and James Wood have digested the races to answer the key question: just who might become mayor this May? 

Hull & East Yorkshire 

People in Hull & East Yorkshire are heading to the polls to choose their very first Mayor. 

They will take control of an investment fund worth £400m over the next 30 years and direct housing, transport, skills and economic regeneration. 

Uniting leafy villages, coastal communities and deprived city estates, it’s a diverse region. 

It encompasses Conservative and Labour MPs, councils under Conservative and Lib Dem control, and territory ripe for a surge in Reform support. 

Who are the candidates? 

• Luke Campbell (Reform UK): The former professional boxer, 37, won a gold medal for Team GB at the London 2012 Olympic Games. Through his campaign, he has been critical of the UK’s drive towards Net Zero. He has also pledged to bring buses under public control and improve accountability in council spending. 

• Rowan Halstead (Yorkshire Party): The Party’s co-leader, 28, has a background is in the armed forces and engineering. Halstead’s key election pledges include preventing council tax increase and upskilling the workforce. He has also advocated for the reinstatement of the Beverley to York rail line. 

• Anne Handley (Conservative): Currently the leader of East Riding of Yorkshire Council, Handley has worked in various jobs in the past including driving trucks and working in factories. The 63-year-old’s key election pledges include not levying a mayoral tax, transport improvements and enhanced broadband coverage for rural areas. 

• Kerry Harrison (Green Party): Harrison, 43, has experience running a social media company and working at a special needs school. Her key election pledges focus on addressing housing shortages and creating more green jobs. Perhaps more unusually, she’s voiced support for a trial of a universal basic income and a four-day working week. 

• Margaret Pinder (Labour Party): Pinder, 65, served as the first female Labour mayor of Beverley. She has a background in law and lectured at Harvard University. Pinder’s key election pledges include ending the morning rush to get a GP appointment, banning repeat offenders from high streets and introducing a Mayoral Apprenticeship Scheme. She also wants to “find and fill every pothole in a year” and to offer free summer bus travel. 

• Mike Ross (Liberal Democrat): Ross, 44, is the leader of Hull City Council and has lived in the city since 2000, having moved there to attend university. Ross’s key election pledges include fixing the roads, introducing dedicated named police officers for every community and delivering cost of living support. 

So who might win? 

The Conservative support has typically hailed from within the East Riding, but the Liberal Democrats are just a few seats away from taking control of the council there. Meanwhile, Labour’s support in its traditional heartland is also under threat from the Liberal Democrats who now run the council there. 

Can Mike Ross appeal to enough voters across Hull and the East Riding to pull off a victory and become the Liberal Democrats first ever elected mayor? 

Despite campaigning hard, the polls suggest not. 

Luke Campbell way out ahead on 34% in YouGov’s latest survey. Ross finds himself behind on 21%, followed by Labour and then Conservatives. 

Campbell is currently the bookies’ favourite to win too, with early bets putting him as the 1/2 favourite. 

Reform’s strong performance across the 2024 General Election contests here and Campbell’s high profile mean he has a significant advantage in this race. 

However, More In Common’s poll released this weekend shows it could be much tighter. Campbell remains ahead on 27%, but it is Anne Handley who is second – and only just, on 24%. 

Can Campbell triumph, or could a last-minute blow floor his chances? 

Greater Lincolnshire 

Another new mayoralty, and another diverse region. 

The new mayor needs to appeal to voters from the Humber to the Wash, Scunthorpe to Stamford. 

The victor will be responsible for a £720 million investment fund over the next 30 years. 

While Lincolnshire has been strong for the Conservatives in the past, the 2024 general election saw them suffer blows not just from Labour, but Reform UK who are looking to secure victory with their high-profile  candidate Dame Andrea Jenkyns. 

Who are the candidates? 

• Dame Andrea Jenkyns (Reform UK): Previously Member of Parliament for Morley and Outwood, she has pulled off stunning election victories in the past, defeating Ed Balls back in 2015. High profile and outspoken, the 50-year-old was known for her strong support for Brexit and allegiance to Boris Johnson during her time in Parliament. Her campaign focuses on fixing Lincolnshire’s transport, housing for “local people” and training “so Lincolnshire’s talent stays here”. She is also a strong critic of Net Zero. 

• Sally Anne Horscroft (Green Party): Horscroft, 67, has been a Green Party councillor for the Abbey ward in Lincoln since 2019. She is putting the climate and sustainability at the heart of her campaign. Her key priorities include tackling wealth inequality, investing in community facilities and supporting green technologies to create jobs. 

• Marianne Overton (Lincolnshire Independents): Overton is a councillor since 1999. Her campaign pledges focus on improving health provision, “better jobs” and pledging “solar on roofs, not farmland”. 

• Jason Stockwood (Labour and Co-operative Party): The businessman and co-owner of Grimsby Town FC, 54, grew up on a council estate. His key pledges include affordable bus fares, filling a record number of potholes and “fighting for the coast and countryside”. 

• Rob Waltham (Conservative): Waltham is one of Lincolnshire’s most high-profile politicians, having served as leader of North Lincolnshire Council since 2017. The 52-year-old has pledged to “do things differently, deliver better roads, buses and more high-quality jobs”. He has promised to ensure there are no new taxes and support British Steel in Scunthorpe. 

• Trevor Young (Liberal Democrats): Young, 63, is leader of West Lindsey District Council. He has been a councillor since 2011. His key pledges include action to tackle the cost of living crisis and ensure rural communities get a “fair deal”. 

So who might win? 

Andrea Jenkyns has been hailed as the most likely victor since the start of the race. And on all metrics, a victory for Reform UK looks almost certain. 

YouGov shows Jenkyns ahead on a mighty 40%, with the Conservatives trailing at 25%, followed by Labour and Green. The bookies also list Jenkyns as their standout favourite to win. 

But it’s not over yet, and More In Common’s poll shows Jenkyns’ lead is not quite as strong. She’s at 32%, while Conservative Rob Waltham is on 30%. 

It could come down to the wire. 

West of England 

While election races are usually dominated by the candidates, this race has seen as many headlines about the outgoing mayor, Labour’s Dan Norris. 

Elected as the MP for North Somerset and Hanham, having defeated Jacob Ress Mogg at the general election, he had already decided he wouldn’t be seeking re-election as mayor. 

But his recent arrest and suspension from the Labour Party has proven to be a distraction from the contest. 

His time in office has been marred by controversy too, with the Combined Authority placed into special measures between March 2024 to February 2025, after an auditor’s report criticised infighting among local leaders and senior officials. 

So, who can step out of the incumbent’s long shadow to win next week and restore public trust? 

Who are the candidates? 

• Helen Godwin (Labour): A former councillor and cabinet member, serving under Mavin Rees (Labour Mayor of Bristol), Godwin stood down in 2021 to take a job in the private sector. After a series of disagreements between outgoing Mayor Dan Norris with local council leaders, Ms Godwin has made building relationships with local leaders a key priority. She has also backed North Somerset joining the combined authority and has confirmed that she will look to bring bus services under public control. 

• Steve Smith (Conservative): A former Bristol Lord Mayor and councillor, Smith has promised to “fix the mess” at the Combined Authority. He has also expressed that he wants to see a “huge expansion” of local rail services and a more efficient bus network. He has also been critical of the Labour government’s housing policy and confirmed he wants to see a “radical brownfield site first policy” when it comes to planning.  

• Oli Henman (Liberal Democrat): Henman is a councillor for Bath and is passionate about sustainability. Transport is one of his key priorities and he wants to see buses brought under public control. He has also stated how he believes in investing in green jobs and wants further collaboration between local councils. 

• Mary Page (Green): Page was formerly a Liberal Democrat Mayor candidate for Bristol in 2020, having left the party two years later, declaring that she wanted to belong to a party that “served the needs of the people I want to represent”. Transport is a key campaign pledge, alongside a commitment to help local businesses invest in adult skills.  

• Arron Banks (Reform UK): Banks was one of the founders of the Leave EU campaign, having come to prominence in the 2016 referendum campaign. During the campaign, he has claimed that “Bristol is really corrupt” and that as Mayor he would “take the statues out of the river where they were dumped and put them back up”. This is in reference to the Edward Colston statue. Aside from this more unusual pledge, his main focus appears to be on driving out waste and inefficiency in the authority. 

• Ian Scott (Independent): A councillor in South Gloucestershire, Scott was a former Labour councillor but left the party following a row when he didn’t make Labour’s Mayoral shortlist. He has argued that the authority has been “short changed” by the government’s recent devolution agenda and has argued for further funding for the authority.  

So who might win? 

In 2021, Labour’s Dan Norris comfortably beat the Conservative candidate, Samuel Williams, following the redistribution of second-preference votes from the Liberal Democrat candidate. Norris ultimately won with 59.5% to 40.5%.  

However, if the election had been held under the current FPTP, the contest would have been a closer affair. Labour held 33.4% of the vote, with the Conservatives on 28.6%, Greens on 21.7% and the Liberal Democrats on 16.3%. 

The forthcoming election is difficult to predic,t but owing to the scandal surrounding incumbent Dan Norris and the controversies throughout his time as Mayor, it is expected that the Labour vote will be negatively impacted. 

YouGov’s poll suggests the region’s strong progressive vote in this region will head towards the Greens, with Mary Page predicted to become their party’s first ever regional mayor. 

But More In Common’s poll shows Labour will hold on here, but only just. Labour’s Helen Godwin is polling at 23%, while Conservative Steve Smith is on 21%. Reform and Green are both on 18%. 

This race appears to be the tightest of them all. 

Cambridgeshire & Peterborough 

The current Mayor, Labour’s Dr Nik Johnson, announced earlier this year that he will not seek re-election in May, saying four-year tenure had taken a “very heavy toll”. 

It means a new Mayor will be chosen. 

The Conservatives have won here before, and comfortably so, with James Palmer being elected at the first election back in 2017. 

His party lost out under the Supplementary Vote (SV) system, but the change to First Past the Post (FPTP) could be a key factor in their return to power this time. 

Who are the candidates? 

• Paul Bristow (Conservative): A former MP for Peterborough, Bristow is campaigning on a platform of infrastructure investment. He supports the dualling of major A-roads including the A10, A47, and A141, as well as better rail links between Peterborough, Cambridge, and Ely. He also backs the delivery of the Fens Reservoir to secure long-term water supplies and has positioned himself against so-called “anti-car” policies and road charging schemes. He’s expressed opposition to solar schemes and promised to freeze the mayoral tax. 

• Anna Smith (Labour): Smith is a former teacher and former leader of Cambridge City Council. She currently serves as Deputy Mayor for Transport. Her campaign centres on creating secure, well-paid jobs across the region. She’s pledged to fill 100,000 potholes, protect £1 bus fares for under 25s and support Peterborough indoor pool. 

• Lorna Dupré (Liberal Democat): A long-serving county and district councillor, Dupré is campaigning for a “greener, fairer, and better-connected” Cambridgeshire and Peterborough. She emphasises the need for genuinely affordable housing in appropriate locations, improved public transport, and stronger collaboration with health and emergency services to support communities. 

• Ryan Coogan (Reform UK): Chairman of Reform UK’s Ely and East Cambridgeshire branch, Coogan has focused on the region’s crumbling infrastructure, citing neglected roads and polluted rivers. He has criticised local leadership for prioritising new development over the maintenance of existing assets and presents himself as a voice for underrepresented communities. Coogan claims that Net Zero is “crippling” Cambridgeshire’s economy. 

• Bob Ensch (Green Party): Ensch, a former director at Morgan Sindall Construction, brings an emphasis on environmental responsibility and social equity. He supports investment in green infrastructure and a more inclusive economy. He opposes road building schemes, advocating for active travel instead. He also wants to see new housing developments using renewable energy and “more space for nature”. 

So who might win? 

This year marks a significant change in how the Mayor is elected, with the Supplementary Vote (SV) system used in 2021 has been replaced with First Past the Post (FPTP). 

This could be a critical factor that supports the Conservatives back to victory. 

Last time, their candidate won in the first round, with Labour behind, only for the state of play to be flipped once second preference votes were counted. 

This time everyone has just one vote, and whoever gets the most wins. 

Conservative Paul Bristow is ahead in both the YouGov and More In Common polls. 

YouGov lists him at 32%, with Reform UK 20%, Labour 19%, Liberal Democrat 18% and Green 10%. 

But More In Common’s poll shows he’s just seven points ahead, with Labour’s Anna Smith second on 23%. 

With the other parties falling behind, Bristow appears to be on track to win – a victory that Kemi Badenoch and the Conservative Party will be desperately seeking on what is expected to be tough night.