The election of the 34th Dáil (The Irish Parliament) will take place on Friday 29th November amidst the context of a recent budget boosted by a €25bn surplus, however significant challenges face the next Government, with continued population growth exacerbating underlying crises in both the healthcare and housing sectors.
The Coalition Government of Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and the Green party agreed a €10.5bn budget giveaway in early October which was seen as putting the country on an election footing. The Government clearly made use of its vast corporate tax receipts however, the budget was heavily criticised by the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council for “needlessly” adding pressure to an already booming Irish economy.
Now that an election date has been set, we take a look at some of the key areas that the parties will be focused on during the election campaign.
Planning reform and housing delivery
Sound familiar? Similar to the plans from the new Labour Government in Westminster, all the parties in Ireland are agreed that a reformed and efficient planning system is a key policy objective for the next Government.
The current Government has delivered important, but slow progress in this area of policy over its tenure. They recently passed the Planning and Development Bill (one of the largest Bills in the history of the State) to begin the reform process. The bill includes the provision of Urban Development Zones and the consolidation of Ministerial discretionary powers for projects deemed ‘strategic infrastructure’.
Both the parties of Government and opposition will set out their stalls on housing policy and delivery over the coming weeks however the failure to deliver on key housing targets will no doubt provide the focus for the main opposition party – Sinn Féin.
The Planning and Development Bill has laid the foundations upon which the next Irish Government can address the housing and infrastructure challenges that have limited growth and caused significant social challenges.
Energy & green initiatives
Ireland’s commitment to ambitious climate goals will require the expansion of the rapidly growing renewables sector. Ireland’s legally binding emissions targets states that 80% of its electricity is to come from renewable sources by the end of the decade – it is currently just over 40%, so a lot of work is required.
An industry group, Wind Energy Ireland, have said the country needs to build 5GW of onshore and offshore capacity to meet its 2030 targets. While there has been significant investment in recent years, elements of the recently passed Planning and Development Bill should speed up the permitting of these schemes and encourage investment in the sector at a time when the UK Government are trying to do the same.
Who is going to form the next Government?
This election campaign will likely focus on the stewardship of the economy with the governing parties referencing the recent giveaway budget as a clear sign of their competence in handling Irish public finances.
Two years ago, it was considered that the main opposition party, Sinn Fein was within touching distance of government in Dublin, however over the past year their fortunes have turned, and the prospect of being the largest party in Dublin appears to be unlikely with a succession of polls putting it in the high teens compared with more than 30% in October 2022.
The latest polls indicate the two largest parties Fianna Fail (21%) and Fine Gael (22%) are likely to again form the main parties of government. Both parties have held or shared power together for nearly a century.
Whilst this election campaign will see Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael highlight their differences in the TV studios and on the doorstep, it is likely they will again seek to build on their achievements in government with the formation of another ‘grand coalition’ in the week following the election.
What this means & next steps?
It would be very easy to view the forthcoming election as purely a domestic matter, however it will undoubtably have a broader impact for businesses and organisations that work across the UK and Ireland. Competition for foreign direct investment, continuing regulatory divergence and variances in the cost of doing business, will continue to impact organisations working across both markets.
As we enter the election period and beyond, we will be providing updates and insight into the likely formation of the next Irish Government.
In 2024, Cavendish expanded and now has offices in Belfast and Dublin. If you’d like to find out more about how the new Irish Government will impact your business and how Cavendish are best placed to help you – get in contact with us here.
