England.

Tameside’s Green Party have been emboldened by the victory of Hannah Spencer in the Gorton and Denton by-election. While Tameside’s three Denton wards in the seat were considered less favourable to the party than the south Manchester wards, this hasn’t stopped Tameside’s Greens from drastically stepping up their efforts to unseat Labour Councillors in the forthcoming local elections.

The ruling Labour Group has lost several seats in recent years without a vote being cast, with defections and expulsions shrinking their numbers. Enough Labour losses could see the Conservatives, Greens, Reform and local Independents fighting amongst themselves to put together a coalition that would remove Labour from power for the first time since 1979.

Labour is set to lose control of Blackburn with Darwen Council for the first time in 15 years, with polls suggesting the party can expect to lose all 10 of the seats it is defending in 2026. These seats are likely to be picked up by local Independents and Reform, a reflection of the authority’s diverse, but distinct, community voting blocs.

Though a rainbow coalition of Independents, Reform and Conservative councillors could feasibly take over control at the Council, the differing interests of the voters they represent indicate the more likely scenario is an extended period of instability.

Labour’s control in St Helens since 2010 might soon come crashing down, with all-out elections expected to decimate the party’s group on the Council, largely at the hands of Reform.

The Greens are also likely to take seats from Labour in the west of the borough, suggesting the local party is facing a similar dilemma to that of Labour nationally, losing voters from across the political spectrum. The council may soon become an important test of Reform’s capacity for governing, should they take full control. 

Northfield constituency, with its ten councillors, will be critical to Reform UK if it is to make substantial progress in the city. In an area that has traditionally been a fight between Labour and the Conservatives (with one Green win in 2022) the presence of Reform UK in lots of three-way fights will be fascinating to observe. Just before the Easter Break Reform unveiled its ten candidates.

Local media and political commentators were surprised when it ditched two longstanding activists in the Weoley & Selly Oak ward, who have now threatened to stand as independents against Reform. Amongst the ten, only one, ex-Conservative councillor Eddie Freeman, has any experience of elected office.

The Conservative Party has enjoyed many years of success in Solihull, holding on in the face of national trends. Whilst not as well known as its neighbours to the west (Birmingham) and to the east (Coventry), Solihull plays an extremely significant economic role in the region: it is home to Birmingham Airport, the NEC, numerous high-end manufacturing facilities and will have the only HS2 station outside London and Birmingham.

The local Conservative Party has, for many years, attempted to successfully balance between promoting economic growth and meeting their constituents’ demands to protect the green belt. With a revised local plan having concluded its Issues and Options consultation on 16 March, development is likely to be a critical issue once again as the people of Solihull go to the polls. Having been hit by recent defections to Reform UK and facing well-established Green and Liberal Democrat campaigns, the Tories face a tough fight to retain outright control of the borough.

The clock is ticking down fast to Thursday 9 April, when nominations must be submitted to stand in these elections. Rumours are circulating that parties are struggling to find candidates to field. We will only find out once nominations close, but it is likely that with so many ‘all-up’ elections parties from across the political spectrum will struggle to find enough willing volunteers.

To stand in every seat across the Midlands, the parties will need to find 500 candidates, plus more for a smattering of local by-elections. In an era of tactical voting and rapidly shifting political allegiances, the presence, or indeed the absence, of candidates could be a significant factor even where they are unlikely to win themselves.

Long-serving planning portfolio holder Tumi Hawkins has announced that she is standing down in May, having been a district councillor since 2010 and cabinet member since the Lib Dems took control in 2018.

Overall in South Cambridgeshire the picture is likely to remain fairly settled, with Bridget Smith’s administration holding 34 of the district’s 45 seats. We expect them to increase their majority further at the expense of the Conservatives, who are defending just nine seats.

At its local campaign launch, Labour has urged ‘the progressive majority’ in Worthing to consolidate and vote tactically to back the party against the threat from Reform UK: activists are suggesting that a leaking of left-wing votes to the Greens and others could allow a Conservative/Reform coalition in by the back door.

Labour is defending the slim majority it won in the red wave along the South East coast in 2022 and the seaside borough has one-third of seats up for election. While a loss of just three seats would lose Labour its majority, the Conservatives and Reform would need to win all the 13 seats up for election to form a coalition majority. Give the mathematical reality, our expectation is that – contrary to the warnings – Labour will still be in control of Worthing after 7th May.

Local Government Secretary Steve Reed has agreed to consider a proposal from the Association of British Counties to reference the former county of Middlesex in the name of the new West Surrey unitary authority, as the existing borough of Spelthorne was historically part of that county.

While the new council will not formally be established until April 2027, elections will take place this May and are being fought on the Surrey County Council electoral division boundaries, with each division electing two seats.

A long-time true blue stronghold, Surrey County Council’s Conservative leadership was reduced to a minority in 2022. The Lib Dems currently form at least part of every administration in the six districts that will form West Surrey and, with Reform polling less well here than in other parts of the South East, we expect the Lib Dems to emerge victorious in the new authority.