Welsh politics at a turning point.

By James Brinning – Account Manager

With a week to go, it’s been a very different Senedd Election to those which we’ve become accustomed to here in Wales. Polling shows Welsh Labour is set to lose power in Wales for the first time, ending 27 years of uninterrupted leadership in Cardiff Bay. The prospect of a non‑Labour First Minister – once unthinkable for many – now feels increasingly likely as polling day approaches.

A flurry of polls over the last week show Plaid and Reform closely battling for the lead while Labour trails behind, weakened by 27 years in power and public dissatisfaction with Keir Starmer’s UK Labour Government. A poll from YouGov showed Plaid and Reform exactly level on 29% each, while another from MoreinCommon showed the two again level, but on 25%. While voters in Wales appear hungry for change; fragmented polling shows they’re still split on which of the competing visions is most appetising.

We’ve now had manifestos from each of the parties vying to lead the next Welsh Government. Plaid Cymru is campaigning on a platform of “new leadership for Wales”, combining centre‑left economic policies with a stronger emphasis on Welsh autonomy. Plaid’s priorities include cutting NHS waiting times, expanding childcare, reforming business rates, investing in skills and infrastructure, and securing greater powers from Westminster. Reform UK is positioning itself as the disruptive force, focusing on tax cuts, scrapping the default 20mph speed limit, limiting council tax rises and reducing the size of the Welsh state. Welsh Labour, meanwhile, is having to find the balance of defending its record while offering a “new chapter for Wales”, centred on major NHS investment, cheaper public transport, job creation through clean energy and continued social programmes to reduce inequality.

Of course, voters will be heading to the polls under a new proportional system and an expanded Senedd of 96 Members. However, much like the previous Senedd system, a hung Senedd is a near certainty, meaning coalition/deal negotiations are inevitable and, depending on the closeness of the result, some uncertainty about the solidity of the next Welsh Government could remain for months.

Whatever the outcome, one thing is clear: it won’t be business as usual . . . the next Senedd will look, and operate, very different from the last.

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