Welsh Labour: An Unprecedented Battle on Two Fronts.

By James Brinning – Account Manager

Nearly a year after their 2024 General Election landslide victory, Welsh Labour gathered for their Conference in Llandudno in a much warier mood than many might have expected a year ago. That General Election result saw Labour winning 27 out of the 32 seats in Wales, with the Conservatives wiped out entirely. Senedd opinion polling had Labour nailed on for another strong result in the Senedd.  

But a year on, the picture could not be more different 

Hanging over the Conference was the dark cloud of the growing rebellion amongst UK Labour MPs on the UK Government’s Welfare Bill and with two opinion polls in a row showing Welsh Labour in third place on just 18% of the Senedd voting intention, behind Plaid Cymru and Reform UK.  

Current projections show Welsh Labour could be a junior partner in a Plaid Cymru Government or face being thrown out of Government altogether next May. 

Welsh labour fighting on two fronts  

Eluned Morgan attacked both Plaid and Reform in her conference speech. 

She derided Plaid Cymru as “inexperienced economic fantasists” with “big slogans, no serious plan,” whose independence agenda “collapses under the weight of scrutiny”. Welsh Labour will be hoping to win back some of those voters they see as a soft vote for Plaid Cymru – progressive voters annoyed with Labour but sceptical about independence. 

Eluned Morgan blasted Reform as “not a party of delivery – they’re a force of division,” accusing them of wanting to “dismantle” the NHS and replace it with a privatised, profit-driven system.  

Whether these attacks will resonate with Welsh voters after 25 consecutive years in power for Welsh Labour remains to be seen. Voters will certainly be hoping for more ‘meat on the bones’ in policy and delivery on reduced NHS waiting lists that have been too high for too long.   

Eluned Morgan’s red welsh way: more than rhetoric? 

Eluned Morgan has attempted to differentiate herself and the Welsh Labour brand from UK Labour, with her ‘Red Welsh Way’ slogan; a clear throwback to Rhodri Morgan’s ‘Clear Red Water’ strategy to differentiate from the New Labour brand of Tony Blair.  

The ‘Clear Red Water’ policy has been credited with keeping Welsh Labour competitive in Welsh elections even while the UK Labour brand was faltering. However, one problem that will surely limit Eluned Morgan and this current crop of Welsh Labour politicians is a lack of funding – and despite a record-breaking settlement for the Welsh Government in the last year – it appears Starmer and Reeves are in no rush to risk their fiscal rules and deliver a huge injection of cash to Wales either.  

Jo Stevens, Secretary of State for Wales, and others in the Welsh PLP will point to the record Budget settlement for Wales, the £445m in rail funding and the £118m for coal tips as a sign the ‘taps have been turned back on’ from Westminster. But opponents have been quick to criticise Labour and claim this simply isn’t enough after 14 years of Conservative austerity – or certainly not enough for voters to feel the benefit ahead of the Senedd Elections in May 2026. If Eluned Morgan is to really capitalise on her ‘Red Welsh Way’ rhetoric, that is likely to cost money – and money that Starmer and Reeves appear reluctant to break their fiscal rules to deliver in a hurry. 

Some of the more unpopular recent decisions from the UK Government on welfare have an even greater negative effect on the Welsh population; which is comparatively older and sicker than the UK average. In Scotland, the SNP have spotted the open goal and introduced a replacement winter payment – but it is highly unlikely the Welsh Government has the finance to replicate such a scheme in Wales. Plaid Cymru too have pledged to introduce direct payments for child poverty. A difficult Autumn UK Budget (potentially with tax rises) could spell further trouble for Labour in Wales.  

NHS waiting lists and education a cause for concern for labour 

A perennial challenge for Welsh Labour is NHS waiting times. As in England, NHS waiting lists have remained extraordinarily high since the COVID pandemic. However, unlike in England where waiting times have fallen consistently over recent months, in Wales, the picture is more mixed. Reducing these waits has been marked as a clear priority for Eluned Morgan and will likely be a key factor in voters’ minds next May after 25 years of Welsh Labour governance. Challenges also remain in education, where PISA scores have recently declined again and now the country lags further behind England. 

Welsh Labour will be hoping that any new Corbynista party could eat into Plaid Cymru votes as much as their left flank and will be waiting for a Reform Party in Wales made up of undercard Tories to falter before the elections. With Starmer, and the UK Party seemingly focused on Reform and battling to the right, it remains extremely difficult for Welsh Labour Leader and incumbent First Minister Eluned Morgan MS to plot her own path to re-election in 2026.