A recap of the Irish General Election: How did the parties fare?

Written by Matthew Morrison, Senior Account Director

After a three-week campaign, the election of the 34th Dáil (The Irish Parliament) culminated in a tight three-party battle to take a majority and hold the office of Taoiseach.  

Here’s our analysis of how the race to take the leadership is shaping up. 

In what was another close election, Fianna Fáil secured the highest total of first preference votes and the most seats. Fine Gael made marginal gains but fell behind Sinn Féin in party strength for the second time. The Green Party had the worst outcome possible – losing 11 of its 12 outgoing seats and only its leader, Roderic O’Gorman, keeping his place in parliament at the final count. 

The main headlines: 

• Fianna Fáil once again defied the opinion polls to come from behind in the election campaign and pull ahead of their rivals Fine Gael and Sinn Féin with 48 seats. After a crushing defeat in 2011 with only 20 TDs in its ranks, Micheál Martin has led his party back to a position of strength.  

• Simon Harris is likely disappointed with Fine Gael’s performance. After weeks of high poll ratings, he led his party to its lowest vote since 1948.  

• Although encouraged by her colleagues to bolster her party’s performance, Mary Lou McDonald has missed her chance to lead Sinn Féin into government as Taoiseach. The party dropped 5.5% of its 2020 vote, securing just 39 seats.  

• Other centre-left parties – Labour and the Social Democrats – had a good day at the polls. Both parties secured 11 seats each, providing them with a bargaining chip to negotiate a new government with the larger parties. Meanwhile, the Green Party was badly beaten by the electorate and, after 54 months in government, was reduced to only a single seat, held by Roderic O’Gorman.  

• Independents, Aontú, People Before Profit, and Independent Ireland make up the remaining 26 seats –split between TDs who support and oppose the outgoing government. We think some of them will become the powerbrokers in the coming months. 

While Ireland waits for the next government that will serve until 2029 to be formed, here are a few key things to watch out for in the negotiations.  

• Fianna Fáil has three likely options for government – form a coalition with: Fine Gael and Independent TDs or the centre-left; Sinn Féin and the centre-left; or build a minority coalition with the Labour Party and the Social Democrats with support from Fine Gael. Option 1 is our safe bet.  

• Is the ‘rotating Taoiseach’ here to stay? Fine Gael might only form a coalition government on the condition that Simon Harris serves as Taoiseach for part of the government’s term. We think Fianna Fáil should have enough power to withstand this proposal and may be unwilling to meet the demands of their coalition colleagues.  

• Will Mary Lou McDonald survive as leader of Sinn Féin and the opposition? Sinn Féin has lost its chance to pose a credible challenge to the return of the outgoing government and the party faces electoral challenges from both the right and the left – attempts by McDonald to form a minority coalition government have been described as ‘wishful thinking’ given the parliamentary arithmetic.  

• What’s the price of securing a majority? If Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael form another government together, they’ll need support of other TDs to secure a majority. Labour and the Social Democrats have opened their doors to negotiations, but bring a series of ‘red lines’ on housing, tax and climate policy. Independents will lobby government changes in agriculture and climate policy to secure their support.  

• Who will the winners or losers be? The formation of the next government is far from solved, but there are already some new names heading for the cabinet. Stephen Donnelly’s defeat in Wicklow, the electoral wipeout for the Green Party and the retirement of stalwarts like Fine Gael’s Heather Humphreys will mean promotion for backbench TDs and Junior Ministers.  

Next steps? 

We’re not expecting the next government to be formed officially until the new year – there is simply not enough time before the festive season for the parties to agree on a Programme for Government. But one thing is quite clear – Micheál Martin is the most likely candidate for Taoiseach, returning to the office for a second time after his relatively successful and popular term. He and his party will be locked into negotiations with Fine Gael and others to agree on several key policy objectives, including housing delivery and green energy. But with some political observers already suggesting that Martin will run for President in November 2025, could his party be selecting a new leader in a year’s time?