Croeso i Cavendish Cymru!

Written by Cathy Owens – Director

Our latest acquisition sees us complete the UK map by adding a specialist team in Wales to the group. And, with just over a year until the Senedd ’26 election, it couldn’t be more timely. 

For the last 25 years, Welsh Labour has consistently been by far the largest political group, with elections based on a mix of First Past the Post and regional proportional voting.  

Given the near impossibility of gaining an overall majority, Welsh Labour has done deals with other parties to get its budget through or to pass legislation, with a mix of formal and informal agreements.   

However, both the voting system and the politics have changed since the last election.   

In May 2026, the number of Senedd Members will increase from 60 to 96 and a new voting system using 16 regions of 6 members on closed party lists will be introduced. Given the maths, parties will need to rethink their campaign strategies – they’ll need to focus on coming first *and second* in as many regions as possible, rather than just maximising their overall vote share. 

Recent polling suggests that Welsh Labour is in for a rough ride. The party is now around the 25% vote-share mark for the first time in 25 years – well down from the 35-40% of the past.  

Rather than a dominant Welsh Labour, with as many seats as Plaid Cymru and the Conservatives combined, the polls now show four equally placed parties, including Reform UK. It is this shift in politics, rather than the electoral system itself, which will see the biggest change in the overall results in 2026.  

Plaid Cymru is in a relatively good position, with some polls showing the party either level with, or just ahead of Welsh Labour. But, translating this into Senedd seats will be dependent on them increasing their support outside their traditional heartlands. 

Current polling points to Reform UK having a sizeable group of MSs post-election, not only taking votes from the Conservatives, but likely winning a substantial number of seats and votes in traditional Welsh Labour heartlands across South Wales. A health warning though: their national polling could shift quite quickly, and the experience of UKIP members in the 2016-2021 Senedd suggests their influence could be limited.  

The political parties in Wales are already considering their policy platforms and this offers an opportunity for organisations to engage with key individuals who are shaping these manifestos. In a four-party race, that begs the question ‘so who should I be engaging with?’ 

We are most likely to see a formal coalition between Welsh Labour and Plaid Cymru, though it’s possible the Lib Dems or Greens (on course to win just one or two seats each) could play a part too. However, there’s an outside chance of a deal involving Reform, the Conservatives AND Plaid Cymru! 

To track opinions polls and paint a picture of how the new Welsh Government could look, we’ve developed a unique seat projector tool. It allows us to explore the potential permutations of the Senedd’s make up, and helps us identify where and how our clients can engage pre-election with most impact.  We can also advise on how the manifestos are shaping up. 

We’re looking forward to sharing the latest insights and trends, and helping you speak the language of Wales.