Starmer’s tightrope.

By Chris Lee – Director and Head of Media Strategy

What a Green victory in Labour land tells us about the Government’s precarious position.

In the small hours of the 27th February, the Returning Officer for the Gorton and Denton parliamentary by-election in Greater Manchester, confirmed that the Green Party had created quite the upset and taken the seat from Labour.

Not only that, the Labour Party, who had been displaying a quiet optimism about holding the seat, were pushed into third place by Reform.

Multiple polls ahead of the election put the three contenders as too close to call, but when was all said and done, the Green Party comfortably claimed victory with a majority of nearly 4,500.

Parliamentary by-elections are known for creating their own centre of gravity – an opportunity for voters to take a so-called ‘free hit’ at the Government, with campaigns often focussed on hyper local issues, with a degree of desperation and ever more inventive campaign tactics thrown in to get your voters to the polls.

But the fallout from Gorton and Denton will loom large for Prime Minister, who is now only two months away from huge elections across the UK – Scotland, Wales, London, Birmingham to name but a few. Where by-elections rarely create the political weather, what we saw in Greater Manchester feels different. More like the early rumbles ahead of a large seismic event which will go way beyond Westminster, with a number of crucial considerations for business coming to the fore.

What is clear from this election is that the fragmentation of UK politics away from the two-party system is advancing at pace. The Conservatives hoovered up only a few hundred votes – that traditional Red vs Blue contest was nowhere to be seen. The Lib Dems, often a centre ground sanctuary of choice for disaffected voters in by-elections, got fewer votes than the Tories. The two parties leading the charge – one further left, one further right, have become mainstream options that voters are comfortable with putting their X next to.

As votes continue to push away from the centre ground and two-party politics retreats to the sidelines (for now at least) – it demonstrates two immediate strategic concerns for Government. The electorate are awake to tactical voting – they know how to get their preferred outcome or least bad outcome (depending on your point of view) – and are comfortable doing it. This means there are significant risks for Labour going into local elections in May.

It also means that voters are continuing to align to values-driven politics away from the centre ground, which leaves Starmer and his top team with an inalienable conundrum as we reach the midpoint of this parliament towards the end of this year. In essence, where do you double down, where do you focus policy efforts, where can you move to shore up your own voters and support?

This is the crucial thing for businesses to anticipate and understand over the next few months – do Labour look to curb the progressive drift to their left by pushing heavily into those issues; around climate ambitions, taxation, planning reforms and other hot-button topics favoured by the Greens, or do they continue on the same path, quixotically ambivalent to the left drift and push ahead undeterred with a focus on growth, cost of living and delivery – that is the tightrope Starmer is now walking.

Added to all this – highly controversial plans are afoot – from changes to jury trials to sweeping reforms for Special Educations Needs and Disabilities (SEND) – and as we saw with the welfare rebellion last year, Starmer’s own MPs can (and have) derailed core pieces of the project. Political management of his own MPs will be as crucial to his longevity as any other factor, indeed, they ultimately hold the key to any leadership challenge should that occur.

As politics continues to push out to the left and right – we’ve been tracking the policy announcements of both the Green Party and Reform UK – to give clients a fuller and more holistic understanding of their broader priorities for the country – and for business. We have just launched these – and we will continue to update them as their policy platforms develop – and you can take a look at these right now. Our Green policy tracker is here and our Reform policy tracker here.

As political fragmentation continues, businesses are under pressure to make the right strategic decisions as they scan an ever-changing horizon, but also not to wander unwittingly into flashpoints of controversy. The era of predictable political triangulation is over, so it’s vital that businesses look ahead and plan for that uncertain landscape ahead.