Brexit 10 years on…

By Tom Bradley – Director

This month marks ten years since the referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union. The referendum saw the most votes ever recorded in a British poll, with over 33million people heading to the polling station to have their say on this major constitutional issue. The result, with 52% in favour of leaving, delivered shockwaves through the political and business establishments.

Ten years on, the UK is outside of the European Union, and yet our relationship with Europe is changing yet again. The Labour Government have committed to forging a closer relationship with Europe, and we have already seen the UK choosing regulatory alignment over regulatory independence in a few key areas, with mor eon the horizon (including a SPS agreement to cover food, agri and pharma). Geopolitics is reshaping global alliances and defence cooperation, with both the UK and EU looking to work more closely together as US reliance is brought into question. Pro-EU parties govern in Scotland and Wales. And, with the UK set to have a new Prime Minister this summer, potentially even ahead of the July UK/ EU summit, we expect to see this relationship develop further.

Furthermore, British attitudes to global markets and supply chains have fundamentally shifted. Our forthcoming polling, launching next month, shows a fundamental shift in how the UK public, and crucially consumers, as well as politicians, view American, Chinese, Middle Easter and European companies. Trust and favourability for all things European is reaching new highs, indeed far higher even than we saw when the UK was still a member of the EU.

However, whilst the mood music points to “ever closer union” a phrase beloved by Eurocrats- the reality of closer UK/EU alignment is not as straightforward as some would like to think. On defence, cooperation and deeper integration has largely been at the bi-lateral level, with Commission attempts to harmonise defence procurement stalling in the face of member state national interest. On those areas covered by the SPS agreement, there remains considerable opposition from political parties, both on the right and the left, to the UK becoming a rule taker, with concerns ranging from the use of permitted pesticides to the future of food labelling in the UK. And, in Brussels, there remain concerns about what British trade deals globally mean for UK/ EU cooperation and the appearance of the UK “having its cake and eating it”.

For businesses operating in the UK and Europe, there is a need to closely look at what this changing relationship means. Risks and opportunities lie ahead in equal measure, but understanding the landscape within which you are operating is key. How companies and organisations position themselves, set themselves up and engage with both reputational and regulatory change will be fundamental.

In our latest LinkedIn Live series, “Resetting the Relationship”, we will be speaking to those involved in the Brexit campaigns, the subsequent negotiations, and in politics today, across these islands and on both sides of the Channel, to get their take on what the future holds. You can watch back our first session in the series here. Stay tuned for more across the next few weeks.