Overview
As the UK looks to move towards the left in its forthcoming general election, Europe has, as expected, taken a shift to the right in the European Parliamentary elections.
Parties on the right performed well in the elections, including those in the traditional pro-European conservative European Peoples’ Party (EPP) group, as well as those more eurosceptic or hard-right parties in the European Conservatives & Reformists (ECR) and Identity & Democracy (ID) groups. On the other side, the big losers of the elections were the Greens and Liberals.
Results
The European People’s Party (EPP) emerged as the clear victor, solidifying its influence with around 186 seats, representing a quarter of the total 720 seats in the hemicycle. This growth makes the EPP the only centrist party to gain seats in this election, positioning it strongly to shape EU policies going forwards.
Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission president, is among the key figures emerging victorious. She is well-positioned with a potential coalition of Socialists, liberals, and her own center-right EPP, expected to hold around 403 votes in the chamber. Although she only needs 361 votes to secure a second mandate, defections could still pose a challenge. Nonetheless, the EPP’s strong performance in countries like Germany, Spain, and Poland bolsters her chances, with leaders like Manfred Weber pushing for her continuation.
Far-right parties also saw major gains across Europe. In France, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally captured nearly a third of the vote, consolidating its position as the leading ultra-nationalist group in the Parliament. Similarly, Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy secured more than a quarter of the vote in Italy. Far-right parties equally found success in Austria, tied for first in the Netherlands, and came in second in Germany and Romania, highlighting the growing influence of far-right ideologies across Europe. The European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and the Identity and Democracy (ID) groups will control 73 and 58 seats, respectively, with additional far-right representation from Alternative for Germany (15 seats), Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz (10 seats), Poland’s Confederation (6 seats), and Bulgaria’s pro-Kremlin Revival party (3 seats).
The centre-left Socialists and Democrats (S&D) remained stable with 139 seats, maintaining their share at 19.3%. They held their ground in key countries like Spain and Italy and saw a minor resurgence in France under Raphaël Glucksmann, but faced disappointment in Germany, where Chancellor Scholz’s Social Democrats experienced their worst ever election result, finishing a distant third behind the far-right Alternative for Germany party. Renew Europe (RE) experienced a large reduction in seats, losing 22 seats and now holding just 80 seats (11.1%). The Greens experienced substantial losses, particularly from their delegations in France and Germany, dropping from the fourth to the sixth largest party in the Parliament with just 52 seats (7.2%).
In Hungary, Péter Magyar emerged as a significant opposition figure, securing around 30% of the vote and challenging Viktor Orbán’s dominance, positioning himself as a crucial player in Hungary’s political landscape. Roberta Metsola, the Maltese president of the European Parliament, had an outstanding performance, securing her party an extra seat and becoming her country’s most voted MEP candidate since joining the EU.
On the losing side, Emmanuel Macron faced a significant setback as his party came in a distant second, just ahead of the Socialists. His lead candidate, Valérie Hayer, struggled against her male counterparts, highlighting internal party challenges. Following the French results, President Macron has called a snap French Parliamentary election in an attempt to decapitate the National Rally lead. Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats in Germany suffered a historic defeat, receiving just 14% of the vote, their worst result in over a century, prompting calls for early elections. Matteo Salvini’s League party in Italy saw a dramatic reduction in support, falling significantly from previous elections, even as far-right parties were making major gains across much of Europe.
In Ireland, the final election results are pending due to the complex proportional representation, single-transferable voting system, but Fianna Fáil’s Barry Andrews and Fine Gael’s Regina Doherty are likely to be elected in Dublin, with the remaining two seats closely contested, while Fine Gael’s Sean Kelly leads in Ireland South and Luke ‘Ming’ Flanagan is expected to win in Midlands-North-West.
What does it mean for business?
Regulatory Environment and Market Dynamics: The rise of right-wing populist forces in the EU could lead to gradual changes in the regulatory landscape. With the European People’s Party (EPP) and far-right groups gaining more influence, there may be a shift towards prioritising national autonomy over centralised EU regulations. This could result in less stringent regulations, potentially benefiting businesses by reducing compliance costs. However, it could also create an uneven regulatory landscape across the EU, complicating market entry and operations for UK firms.
Trade Protectionism: Post-Brexit, the UK has faced issues in several sectors when trading with the EU. If the new Parliament, influenced by right-wing populist forces, decides to protect Europe’s manufacturing and production capabilities more strongly, other nations, including the UK, might face increased tariffs and other trade obstacles. Conversely, there might be opportunities for reduced tariffs if commercial interests align. For instance, German politicians have previously criticised high tariffs on UK-built automobiles, which could be reconsidered to facilitate trade in electric cars.
Defense and Border Security: An increased focus on defense and border security could create new opportunities, particularly in security-related research and development, but also for production and trade of military equipment. A rightward shift in the Parliament might prioritise defence and security, potentially at the expense of other areas like climate and environmental policies.
Conclusion
The 2024 European Parliament elections clearly demonstrated a shift towards the right across Europe. Since the EPP remains the dominant force, any change in political priorities, particularly regarding climate and environmental issues, will largely depend on whether the EPP decides to alter its stance on these critical topics. The direction that the EPP chooses to take will be crucial in determining the future policy landscape of the EU.
Please contact us here if you would like to discuss the election results and what they mean for your business.
